A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
